Bitcoin halving performance: Does price always rise?

Research suggests that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 20th, may have a less significant impact on Bitcoin’s price compared to previous cycles. Unlike Ethereum, which has shown consistent performance post-halving events, Bitcoin’s price movements have been less predictable after previous halvings. With the reward for mining new blocks dropping from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, the market may not experience the large price jumps seen in the past.

One of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price has been the inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen significant net inflows totaling $12.6 billion as of April 12th. However, despite these inflows, the broader cryptocurrency market has shown signs of decreased engagement, as evidenced by declining trading volumes and open interest metrics.

The report also highlights a contrast in network activity between Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Ethereum’s network activity has increased, Bitcoin’s activity remains relatively subdued.

In terms of economic influence, macroeconomic factors that previously correlated with cryptocurrency movements are now showing less correlation. This suggests that investors may need to adjust their strategies when considering cryptocurrency investments.

Furthermore, public interest in the upcoming halving event, as measured by search trends, has not peaked as much as in previous events. This lack of heightened public interest could lead to less dramatic market movements after the halving.

In conclusion, while the Bitcoin halving event remains significant, its impact on Bitcoin’s price and market dynamics may be less pronounced this year, according to the research.