Bitcoin on-chain activity lags despite price surge, analysts note

The data from Glassnode indicates that despite Bitcoin’s price reaching record highs above $70,000, the real economic activity on its blockchain has slowed significantly compared to the frenetic pace of the 2021 bull market. This suggests a strong holding sentiment among investors, with many waiting for even higher prices before considering selling their Bitcoin holdings.

Analysts at Blockware Solutions noted that the average U.S. dollar value of on-chain Bitcoin transfers remains significantly lower than the peaks observed during the 2021 bull market. They highlighted that “average on-chain transfer volume is well below the 2021 bull market peak,” indicating a reluctance among holders to sell at current price levels.

Glassnode’s data shows that both the seven-day and 14-day average mean transfer volumes are currently below $200,000, a significant decrease from the $1 million-plus levels seen in 2021. This decline in on-chain volume is attributed in part to the growing prominence of Nasdaq-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have concentrated spot volume away from the blockchain.

Other indicators also reflect a strong ‘hodl’ pattern among investors who weathered the 2022 bear market. For example, the percentage of Bitcoin supply last active between three and five years ago is on the rise.

Several analysts predict that Bitcoin’s price could rally into six figures in the coming months, with some setting their targets above the $150,000 mark. Blockware analysts explained that once the price starts to move significantly, on-chain volume is likely to surge as older coins move to exchanges to be sold. Until then, low on-chain volume indicates supply-side illiquidity.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,700, up 5% on a 24-hour basis. The broader cryptocurrency market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, also saw a 5% uplift, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment across the sector.