S&P 500 is ‘overbought’; BTIG sees ‘very poor risk/reward’ into CPI report

As investors anticipate the release of the March inflation data later today, BTIG technical analysts warned the broker’s clients about the “very poor risk/reward” in the S&P 500.

The risk/reward ratio is still abysmal overall. After the market closed yesterday, the analysts sent a note to customers stating that the daily stochastics for SPX are at their most overbought levels in the past year.

According to their comments, speculators in S&P e-mini futures are the most net-short since 2011.

“While it’s true that it might be contrarian, it’s frequently the exact opposite in bear markets. The largest net-short was at its peak in mid-August of last year, just before Jackson Hole and a nearly -20% drawdown into the October lows. In July 2008, before the majority of the GFC bear market collapsed, there was also an almost as a huge short position, the researchers continued.

Sector-wise, the analysts also highlighted banks, especially regional ones, as trading very bearishly.

As their EPS is released, there is a chance we will see a short-term “buy the news” relief rally, but when something becomes very oversold and is unable to recover, another leg lower is usually on the horizon.

These comments came on the same day that Wells Fargo analysts warned the bank’s clients that the S&P 500 is set to correct about 10% in the next few months.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% in premarket Wednesday.